• 2009,09,11

Has Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won his first diplomatic victory since his disputed re-election last June?

Last Thursday, Tehran presented what it called "an updated package" as the basis for fresh negotiations with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany (5+1).

On Friday, P.J. Crowley, the State Department spokesman in Washington, said the package was "unacceptable" because it did not address the Iranian nuclear issue.

Nevertheless, he continued to say that the US would seek "an early meeting" while giving Iran until the end of the year to make up its mind.

On Monday, however, Iran announced that October 1 has already been fixed as the date for starting a fresh round of negotiations. The official Islamic Republic News Agency (Irna) reported that Javier Solana, the European Union's foreign policy czar and the point man on negotiations with Tehran, had agreed to the date after studying the Iranian 'package'.

If the proposed round of talks, the first since last autumn, actually take place, Ahmadinejad would be able to claim a diplomatic victory.

There are three reasons for this. The first is that, for the first time since the nuclear dispute started almost a decade ago, it would be Iran and not the big powers, acting on behalf of the Security Council, setting the agenda.

To be sure, the 5+1 would have every opportunity to raise whatever issue they want, including the nuclear dispute. However, they would be doing so solely within the framework fixed by Tehran and not the three mandatory resolutions passed by the Security Council.

Even before being elected, US President Barack Obama had promised "direct and unconditional talks" with Iran.

However, what he ends up getting next month will be conditional talks, with conditions fixed by Iran.

Nor would he get the one-on-one talks he had hoped for. The US would be 'engaged' in a multilateral context in which China and Russia would act as 'restraining powers', anxious to prevent undue pressure on the Khomeinist regime.

The second reason why Ahmadinejad could claim victory is that he has managed to engage the major powers on a range of issues, the very discussion of which could create the impression that Iran is being accepted as a partner in creating "a new global order".

Without saying so in public, the Iranian leadership has resented the fact that it has been shut out of the G20 negotiations into which others such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria and South Africa have been welcomed.

Ahmadinejad likes to refer to Iran as "a world power" with "both the right and duty to offer mankind an alternative vision." His hope is to transform the 5+1 into a new G7 of which Iran is a full partner. The proposed 'package' is a script for a thorough re-orientation of global policies, rather than settling the dispute over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Ahmadinejad claims that in today's world only two powers count: Iran and the United States. This is why he insists on being treated as a world leader and not a regional pariah. His address at the forthcoming general assembly of the United Nations in New York has already been described by the official media in Tehran as a "blueprint for a new world order".

Finally, even if Iran fails to secure a place at the top table through the 5+1 group, the coming negotiations could provide a mechanism for buying time. Weeks, if not months, could be spent on 'clarifying' aspects of the proposed 'package'.

In fact, Obama has already given Ahmadinejad a whole year, free of pressure and additional sanctions.

The consensus in Tehran is that Iran would reach the so-called nuclear threshold within the next 18 months. This means it will have the technical, scientific and industrial wherewithal to build a nuclear arsenal. Once that threshold is reached all talk of stopping Iran from acquiring a military nuclear potential would be academic. The issue would become one of persuading Iran not to build the bomb.

There are two reasons for Tehran's self-assurance as it prepares for next month's talks. The first is that Ahmadinejad and his advisors are confident that the Obama administration has already accepted a nuclear Iran but dare not do so openly because it is afraid of the 'Zionist lobby' in Washington.

Here is how Ata-Allah Bahrami, senior analyst for the official news agency Irna, puts it: "Leaving aside the literature of propaganda and judging by the real yardsticks of national interests and threats, the United States has no problem with Iran's nuclear project and does not regard it as a threat to itself".

He continues: "American [officials] have repeatedly spoken of accepting a nuclear Iran and tried to propose counter measures. [Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton has spoken of an American nuclear umbrella for the Middle East".

The second reason is that Ahmadinejad believes that Obama is anxious to organise the United States' strategic retreat from the Middle East. With help from Iran, Obama could obtain an orderly retreat. With a hostile Iran, the planned retreat could turn into "an historic catastrophe" for the United States.

The message from Tehran to Washington is simple: "Your time in the Middle East is over, and you know it. You are looking for ways of getting out without being routed. Recognise Iran as the new dominant power in the region and we shall help you get out with minimum losses".

Amir Taheri is an Iranian writer based in Europe.

Source: http://www.gulfnews.com/opinion/columns/region/10349209.html